Sunday, December 18, 2011

My Stock Wish List

With the holiday season right around the corner, I thought I would take some time to state my stock wish list for 2012.  This is the entire list of stocks on my watch list and the price that I would start looking to buy (in no particular order).





I will go over why each of these companies are on my list.  Remember to make your own decisions and to do your own research before investing in a company.

Sodastream International (SODA)      Target $30

Always buy into a company when you believe in their product.  I believe that Sodastream may revolutionize the soda business.  They are a high margin company that sells a product that allows consumers to make their own carbonated beverages.  I was skeptical at first, but once you buy their product and their drinks, they're addictive.  Major retailers like Target and Best Buy just started to carry this product.  Revenues should start to increase exponentially in the future. Since the company went public a year ago, they have had 4 consecutive earning hits.  This company continues to surpass investor expectations.

This stock is not for the faint of heart.  Currently trading at $30.92, this stock was trading at $70 three months ago.  This is typical of stocks coming off of an IPO, but if you do decide to buy, be forwarned.  At under $30, I will be buying this stock and I think it has the potential to be trading at $100+ in the next couple of years.

Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP)        Target $28

This stock is only a viable investment in a Roth IRA.  This company is a Master Limited Partnership and is subject to confusing and time consuming tax rules.  No tax needs to be paid if in a Roth IRA however.  This company is a very safe energy stock that has a dividend around 7%.  As I have said in the past, I feel energy (along with technology) will be great plays for the next 10+ years.  This stock has consistently paid a large dividend for almost 20 years, and it doesn't look like it will stop anytime soon.  I have a target price of $28, and it is currently trading at $30.95.  In addition to the 7% dividend, I believe this stock could appreciate in price another 8-10% a year, making this a good long term investment.

Halliburton Company (HAL)      Target $30

Many companies are expected to benefit from rising oil prices, and Halliburton is one of them.  The company has got rocked the past four months, peaking at $57 and now trading at only $31.76.  I believe this stock is extremely oversold.  They have a very small PEG of .39, and this company is expected to grow substantially going into the future.  This is a company that specializes in oil drilling and exploration.  I do not see how the stock price can go any lower, but there is a good possibility it will be trading much higher this time next year.


Intel Corporation (INTC)         Target $21

Most people know about Intel and their products.  There are three reasons why Intel is poised to dominate in the next five years.  1. They are still the semiconductor industry leader.  2. They are trusted in the IT industry.  3. They have large gross margins.  Like most technology stocks, Intel has stayed relatively flat over the last decade.  However, they now yield a nice 3.6% dividend and a P/E of just 10.  If Intel can keep growing at over 10% a year, there is no way the price can go any lower.

This is a stock that I consider a substitute to Cisco Systems.  Along with ExxonMobil, Cisco Systems is one of the most privately owned stock in the USA.  I think now is the time to get out of Cisco and to get into Intel.  This is the reason Intel is on my watch list.  Currently trading at a price of $23.03, Intel has a ways to go before it falls into my strike range.  However, this stock has a beta that is greater than 1, and if the market goes down, this stock will fall with it, even if it is not warranted.

Vodafone Group (VOD)     Target $25

This is a very interesting stock and is one I would buy immediately if it reaches my strike price.  Vodafone is the world's largest wireless phone company with a dominant hold on most of Europe.  They also own 45% of Verizon Wireless.  Vodafone "officially" pays a 5.5% dividend each year, but they pays a special dividend on top of that.  When you consider the special dividend, Vodafone yielded a whopping 11% this year.  With Verizon promising to pay big dividends in the future, I do not see this changing.  They are currently trading at $27.17, but the stock price has been increasingly volatile as of late.  I see Vodafone dipping below $25 very soon and I will ready to pounce when it does.

Procter & Gamble (PG)   Target $60

This has been one of the safest and consistent performing stocks during the past 20 years.  It is always important to diversify your portfolio, and mine is currently heavy on Technology and Energy.  Procter & Gamble is a great way to dip into the consumer goods section.  While this stock does not offer a ton of upside, it does pay a 3.2% dividend and will not go down very much if the market crashes again.  I could see them trading in the mid 70's in a couple of years, and with limited downside risk, that is not too bad in today's trading environment.

Corning Incorporated (GLW)    Target $12.50

Corning is another company I am giddy about.  They have dropped in price dramatically during the last couple months because of an earnings miss.  However, I see them rebounding very nicely.  They are one of the world leaders in glassware, and own over 60% of the LCD screen market.  They also make screens for phones and household glass products.  With the stock currently trading at $13.08, I expect it to bounce into the 17's very soon.  My only hope is that the stock can drop below my strike price before it does that.


Transocean LTD (RIG)      Target $40

I am aware that this stock is currently trading at $39.83 which is below my target price.  However, I believe this stock may still go lower, which is why I am holding off on buying it for now.  This is a wild stock that was trading at $80 four months ago and $160 four years ago.  This company was partially responsible for BP's oil rig problem in the Gulf, but I think the stock has been oversold as a result of it.  Transocean pays an 8% dividend.  There are many negatives going on with the company right now which is why I have not bought yet.  First, they just issued a lot of new stock, which is depressing the stock price.  Second, they posted negative earnings last year as they had to spend a lot of money cleaning up the Macando Rig spill.  However, this company is too strong and good at what they do to not bounce back.  Despite everything that has happened, I will buy them when the price is right.  If the S&P drops down into the 1150 range, RIG's price will be so low that it will be a surefire buy.

Exelixis, Inc (EXEL)      Target $4

This is by all accounts a flier pick.  This is a bio-tech company, and anyone who follows bio-techs know they are hit or miss.  This is an extremely volatile company, and can have 300% upswings in the course of two weeks or it can lose 80% of its value in two weeks.  They try and create drugs to help treat and cure cancer but the approval process is long and difficult.  I am willing to take a risk with this company because they seem to have some promising products in the pipeline, but even I know this is just like playing slots at a casino.  It could turn out either way.  This stock is currently trading at $4.16.

Whirlpool Corp (WHR)     Target $45

This is another company that I think has got the short end of the stick.  Whirlpool's stock price has dropped 50% in the last six months and I think it is due a rebound.  They pay a 4.3% dividend and they are the market leader in may products.  Whirlpool is very much linked to the housing market and is dependent on consumers to have money to spend on luxury products.  I think the next decade will be very good for stocks and with a beta of 1.89, Whirlpool is sure to shoot straight up like the best of them.

There it is, the stocks on my watch list.  As you can see I like stocks that I feel are undervalued but still may be on the downswing.  This is why I am very cautious about when I buy because I do not want to try and catch a falling knife.  I hope you enjoyed this list and gave you some inspiration for your own investing ideas.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Life Lesson #2: Walking

I would like to think that this topic should not need to be covered, but recent experiences have convinced me otherwise.  I will go over some basic walking etiquette that should be implied but obviously it is not.

1. When walking on a sidewalk or on a like pavement, always walk on the right side.  I do not know how many times I have been walking on the correct side only to see someone coming right at me.  I should not have to move to the left side of the sidewalk.  This should be second nature to almost everyone, but it needs to be stated as it is an issue.

2. When walking through a split-door, always enter through the right door.  If I am walking into a building, I don't want some chumbalone coming out the door I am trying to come in.  It is not that hard to just go through the right door.  An exception can be given if the right door is a handicapped door that is harder to open, but only is no one is trying to come out the other doors.

3. When walking in groups on a sidewalk, it is the group's responsibility to clear a path for people coming the other way.  The last thing I want to see is an inconsiderate group of people forcing me to walk on the grass instead of moving to their side of the sidewalk.

4. When someone is walking slow in front of you, that person should let you pass in front of them.  For whatever reason, people will sometimes start to swerve in front of you when you try and pass them.  They also might try to speed up as well, making you awkwardly walk next to them for even longer.  Rule of thumb, if your not fast enough to walk with the big boys, then move to the side and let them pass.

5. When walking in a space with intersecting hallways, it is common to run into people who do not know walking etiquette.  For example, if I am walking on the right side of a hallway and turn right onto the right side of a perpendicular hallway, there is a good chance there will be someone there and I will run into them.  First of all, the person walking on the left side of the hallway is making the mistake, and it is their fault that they ran into me.  This happens way to often, and causes me to think that if people walk so poorly, how can they possibly be driving any better?
WHAT ARE WE IN ENGLAND?? These kids are being taught to walk on the wrong side of the street


That is all for now, but rest assured, more life lessons will be coming in the future.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Investing in Energy

Over the next 10 years, there are 2 sectors that stand out to me among the rest: Technology and Energy.  Today I will be focused on energy and why you should be in it. 

First, the world needs energy, and as countries like China and India become more industrialized, the world is going to need a lot of energy and fast.  There is no better way to play this than to buy oil companies.  Oil already sells for $100 a barrel, and will soon sell for much higher. 

To get the actual oil producers, you cannot go wrong with ExxonMobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), or Chevron Corporation (CVX).  Theses stocks are all attractively priced, with P/E's under 9 and Forward looking P/E's under 7.  There dividends range from 3 to 4%, and they have stable and growing demand for their product.  These stocks are great long term buy and hold stocks, but it is important to keep an eye on the news to make sure your oil stock does not suffer a BP-like disaster.  If it does SELL.

Another sneaky play right now is in oil rigs.  Because of what happened to the Macando well in the Gulf, investors have been avoiding these stocks with the plague, but with little reason.  These companies are undervalued and can pay dividends in upwards of 6 to 8%.  I am talking about Transocean (RIG) and Seadrill (SDRL).  Both companies are indeed risky, but their upward potential is off the charts. 

Disclosure: I own XOM

Thursday, November 10, 2011

An Idiots Guide to the Europe Debt Crisis

The news keeps being dominated by the European debt crisis, but very few people actually know what is going on.  I will attempt to explain whats going on in Europe in a way that everyone can understand.

Ben Bernanke
Let's start with the United States.  In the US, we have the Federal Reserve, which saved us from complete financial collapse in 2008.  The Federal Reserve is run by Ben Bernanke, who is going to be referred to as the US Financial Mob Boss from here on out.  Since the US is one singular entity, our Financial Mob Boss was able to act swiftly in an effort to save us.  Not so in Europe.

Europe has something similar to the Federal Reserve, but since there are many countries in the European Union, it takes to long to get everyone in agreement on a potential rescue package.  This renders the European Financial Mob Boss useless.  Since the US Mob Boss is the only way we survived the crisis, what is Europe going to do?

The problem is that European countries have been living way outside their means.  Lets pretend that you are Greece, and you make $100,000 a year (good for you!).  Unfortunately, this is not good for you because you spend $500,000 every year.  To make up the $400,000 difference, you ask your neighbors to loan you money.  You do this for 50 years.  Eventually, the people will ask for their money back, but you are going to have to say "sorry, I don't have your money."  This seems crazy that Greece could let this happen, but they did and it is now all of our problems. 


Merkel and Sarkozy
Currently, Germany and France are in robust financial conditions, and are able to prevent Greece from defaulting based on their own bailouts to Greece.  Germany is led by Angela Merkel, and France by Nicolas Sarkozy, and they are really the only two people who have the power to divert this crisis.  A Greek default would send shock waves through the European system as people would doubt the monetary ability of the Euro.  Greece is one of the smallest economy's in Europe, so the media made this out to be a bigger deal than it actually was.

A much bigger issue is Italy, which is the 3rd largest economy in Europe.  Italy is too large to fail, but also too large to bail out.  This has epic disaster written all over it.  Let's pretend we are climbing up an icy mountain.  France and Germany are the leaders, and are very experienced climbing mountains.  Most of the EU countries aren't great climbers, but they can pull their own weight.  When climbing a mountain, generally all the climbers are strapped together so if someone falls they don't automatically fall to their death.  Everyone is strapped together, and Germany and France are leading the way up the mountain.  Then there is Greece at the end.  Greece is a small child, which is dangling at the end of the rope.  The child is doing nothing to help climb up the mountain.  While not ideal, this is okay, since Germany and France can easily keep climbing with the dead weight hanging at the end.  Now let's add Italy at the end.  Italy is a 1,500 pound sumo wrestler, who is currently pulling his weight climbing up the mountain.  There will come a point in the near future that Italy will reach the point of no return, and just let go of their ice pick.  Germany and France will instantly feel the weight, and will immediately dig their ice picks into the side of the mountain and hold on for dear life.  Unfortunately, the weight of Italy is too strong, and the leaders lose their grip and everyone starts free falling down the mountain.  There is no way to save them once this starts happening. 

This is the dangerous path that we are on right now, and we need to do everything in our power to make sure that Italy does not take down all of Europe with it.  The scary part here is there are no real solutions to this mess.  2012 is going to be a wild ride for investments.  I think that the market might do well in the short term, but after the holidays, I could see the market going down like we have never seen before.  If you have any gains at that time, it may be wise to sell and ride this coming crisis out.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Life Lesson #1.5: The Weather in Depth


I have been taking a lot of grief that the weather system explained in the previous post is too simple.  I would like to reiterate that Brisk, Mildly Brisk, Balmy, and Steamy and the 4 main categories.  There are actually 20 subcategories within the main categories, which will be explained here.

Let’s start with Brisk, where there are 5 subcategories.  In this new weather universe, it is appropriate to start by saying it is "brisk" or it is "mildly brisk."  However, if someone asks for clarification, then you give him or her the subcategory the weather falls into.

1. Arctic: This is as brisk as it gets.  We are talking temperatures less than -40F.  Even the North Pole rarely sees arctic conditions.  The only time arctic should ever come into play is if you can get hypothermia if you are outside for less than a minute or if you live in Minnesota in January.

2. Glacial: Used when the temperature is between -20F and -40F.  This is not the ideal weather to be having a picnic with the family.  Generally, if you wake up in the morning and someone says it is glacial today, you usually let out a few expletives and go back to bed.

3. Frigorific: We have progressed 40F warmer than arctic, and this is used when the temperature is between -20F and 0F.  It is best if this is said with a British accent.  When it is frigorific, kids start to think that they will be getting off school due to extreme briskness.  This is a magical time a year.

4. Snappy: Time to retire the winter coats!!  We are now in the positives.  Snappy is a seldom-used term for temperatures between 0F and 5F.  Since people like to say frigorific, it is a common tendency to overlook snappy and just say frigorific here.  If you do this, shame on you.  Snappy is a very important part of the weather vortex and you should use it as such.

5. Nippy: Temperatures between 5F and 20F.  This is on the warmer side of Brisk.  When it becomes nippy, the sad realization that it is going to be really *#&$*#& brisk the next five months starts to set in.  This is not a good time to be around people not native to the north.

Congratulations!  We have made it through Brisk.  That wasn't so bad was it?  Now we move on to Mildly Brisk, where the subcategories become even more important.

6. Frigid: Between 20F and 32F.  Frigid gets us up to freezing point.  Remember, that while it may be frigid outside, it is still mildly brisk.  Do not, even for a second, say that it is currently brisk outside.

7. Crisp: Between 32F and 45F.  Crisp weather never hurt anyone.  This is the time to get out the fall coats in the north and the thermal winter jackets in the south.  Crisp weather should bring up happy memories of watching football, raking leaves, and cashing checks.

8. Lukewarm: Between 45F and 48F.  Another seldom used subcategory because people like crisp for some reason.  People also have trouble calling something this temperature lukewarm.  Well, compared to arctic, this temperature is definitely lukewarm, and should be treated as such.

9. Around the Bend:  A great weather term used between 49F and 51F.  Generally at around the bend, either winter or summer is around the bend.  This makes this a great term to use or a horrible term to use, depending on which way the temperature is going. 

10. Snug: Between 51F and 55F.  This is the last possible time someone could be outside in shorts and short sleeves unless they are dumb or at an American football game.  This is very snug weather.  

11. Temperate: Between 55F and 58F.  Now the weather is starting to look real nice.  It is said that the United States climate is temperate.  Well, now we know what that means.

12. Refreshing: Like a can of diet Fresca after a long days work, weather between 58F and 65F is very refreshing.  If you ask someone what the weather is and they say mildly brisk and then refreshing, you should be jumping for joy in happiness.

13. Pacific: Between 65F and 70F.  Imagine you are on a beach of the coast of California.  There is a light breeze with the waves beating down on your toes.  If you were also imagining the temperature being between 65F and 70F, then the weather is pacific.

14. Choice: Between 70F and 75F.  Like a choice cut of beef, this is always the best.  No one should ever be complaining about this weather unless they live on the equator or in hell.

15. Thermic:  We are now at the last one inside mildly brisk (so sad!).  This is between 75F and 80F and is nice weather to go for a walk or take in a baseball game.

Now we approach the upper echelons of the temperature range with Balmy and Steamy.  Prepare yourself because if you screw up in these sections, you may drastically confuse the actual weather situation.

16. Invigorating: This is classically nice weather.  Between 80F and 87F, it doesn’t get much better than this. . .unless you’re allergic to the sun or balmy weather.  Invigorating is similar to waking up in the morning and drinking your morning coffee, this is how this weather feels like.

17. Tropical: Between 87F and 90F.  This is when we really start testing the upper echelon of the system.  When tropical is the weather, it brings up images of the beach in Hawaii.  Make no mistake that tropical can occur in any part of the country.  This is when humans may start to break a sweat outdoors.

18. Scorching:  We are now in the steamy realm.  Image you are a construction worker with the sun beating down on you being absorbed into the black pavement, making the temperature feel much hotter than it actually is.  This is scorching.  Scorching is between 90F and 98.6F.  The fact that this is broken down into decimal points really shows how much thought went into these very scientific categories.

19. Sizzling: Between 98.6F and 101F.  This is like a nice T-bone on the grill.  It has to be sizzling before it is time to eat it.

20. Igneous: All temperatures above 101F.  It does not get any more steamy than this.  This is when old people are told to stay indoors and sane people stay indoors because it is really frickin steamy outside.

I know you may be feeling a bit overwhelmed right now.  Don’t worry, these changes won’t become official until 2013.  This should give you ample time to learn the new weather terms.  I am going to give an example of how you should treat this in the transitional period.  You should be Person 2.

Person 2: What is the weather today bro?
Person 1: Party cloudy, with a chance of showers.  In the evening it should clear out and be in the 70’s.
Person 2:  Dude, that makes no sense.  Don’t you realize we are switching to a new weather system soon.  Get with the program.
Person 1: I am so sorry, what should I have said, sir.
Person 2: Mildly Brisk.
Person 1: That doesn’t help me.
Person 2: Well, then pacific.
Person 1: Thank you, that was more helpful then what I said. I would be so lost without this new weather system!

I will keep you updated on how the implementation process is going for this in the United States and across the world.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

The Basis of the Occupy Wall Street Protests

Almost everyone has heard of the Occupy Wall Street protests and their catchy "we are the 99%" slogan, but what merit do the actual protests hold?

None.

The purpose of the protests is 1. to create more and better jobs, 2. have more equal distribution of income, 3. have less profit (or no profit) for banks, 4. and lower compensation for bankers.

Let's go through these goals one by one.
1. Protesting on Wall Street will not create more and better jobs.  Period.
2. An equal distribution of income goes against the American dream.  Why can't talented and motivated people pursue positions that have higher salaries?  This argument makes no sense.
3. Limiting the amount of profits on banks or any corporation would set this country back fifty years.  Banks need to make money the same way companies like Apple and Microsoft need too.  While we are at it, why don't we just pass legislation limiting the profitability of all companies.  That would really stick it them. 
4. Why should bankers receive less compensation?  They are paid as much as they are because they bring a ton of value to the company.  They are the best and brightest people in the industry, and they should be compensated as such. 

The protesters argue that this is in response to the 2008 Financial Crisis in America, and that this is a preemptive strike against further problems.  However, this country does not make drastic changes based on "preemptive measures."  When the Enron scandal hit, we had Sabranes-Oxley to fix the accounting fraud going on, and when the 2008 Financial Crisis hit, we instituted measures to prevent something like that from happening again.

The saddest part of this movement is the "we are the 99%" catchphrase. These people think they are doing well, going after the top 1% of Americans.  However, in one last dose of hypocrisy, these people need to be evaluated on the world stage.  If you make over $34,000, you are in the top 1% of income on a world basis.

Let me say this again.  The vast majority of the Occupy Wall Street protesters are actually in the top 1%, or will be at some point in their lives. 

Their slogan should be we are the top 1%, fighting to reduce the income of the top .0001%.  It's only now to you realize the true hypocrisy of this argument. 

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Life Lesson #1: The Weather

The weather has baffled the human race since the dawn of civilization.  We have all been burned by the weatherman saying something that has not been true.  I believe that this nonsense needs to stop.  I am proposing that all terms to describe the weather are to be broken down into 4 different terms.  Under this policy, fines would be administered to weather stations that try and get cute and confuse people on something as basic as the weather.  The four overarching terms are Steamy, Balmy, Mildly Brisk, and Brisk, and each will be described below:

1. Steamy
This is the term to use on extremely hot days.  The temperature must be equal to or greater than 90 degrees Fahrenheit to use this term.  Humidity and dew point are not considered to use this term.  If someone says it is steamy out, you should be thinking it is good beach weather.  Under no circumstance should individuals be wearing jeans in steamy weather.  If the weather is steamy, you should either be inside, on the beach, or working. 

2. Balmy
This is the ultimate weather condition.  To qualify as balmy, the temperature must be between 80 and 90 degrees Fahrenheit.  Everyone likes a good balmy day.  Generally these types of days have a nice breeze to them, but this is by no means a requirement to be considered balmy. 

3. Mildly Brisk
This is the ultimate weather term.  Most of the time this term is used, and for good reason.  This is one of those rare terms that can encompass a wide variety of weather conditions.  For the weather to be mildly brisk, the temperature must be between 20 and 80 degrees Fahrenheit.  Generally people will start complaining in the lower part of the mildly brisk range that it is getting "cold."  Well, unfortunately cold is not a weather term anymore, and you should do humanity a favor and inform them that it is now mildly brisk.  If they do not believe you, refer them to a definition of brisk, and tell them that they are experiencing a mild form of that.

4. Brisk
It is never a good sign when someone tells you it is brisk outside.  The temperature must be equal to or lower than 20 degrees Fahrenheit to be brisk.  You should always be wearing warm clothes during brisk weather, unless you are from Russia, Northern Canada, or the Upper Midwest of the United States.  Generally this is a good time to hibernate in your place of residence and watch Netflix until it becomes mildly brisk again.

The Investment Twist
Since this is an investment blog, it would be wrong not to mention that Netflix should be considered a buy right now.  Netflix is oversold, and their stock price has fallen from $300 to $110 because of a 4% decline in the number of streaming customers.  I've got a newsflash for potential investors: It is getting brisk outside, and people will not be spending their time outside anymore.  People are going to get bored and subscribe to Netflix until the weather becomes mildly brisk again.

I have a December 2012 price target for Netflix of $150.

Disclosure: I do not own Netflix 

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

The Gold Standard

Gold is one of those investments that makes people hesitate before buying: it doesn't pay dividends, it doesn't have earnings to back up its price, and the price (annualized over the last 100 years) has barely broke even compared to inflation.  That being said, for as long as we know, Gold has always been adored by the human race and everyone wants to own it.  Over the last 6 years, Gold is up over 400% while the S&P 500 is just break-even over that same time period.  Gold is considered as safe or safer than most currencies, and unlike Greece, Gold will never default and will never be worthless.  There are 3 different ways you can own Gold:

1. Buying GLD or IAU
This is one of GLD's warehouses of Gold.
Buying Gold ETF's is probably the easiest way to own Gold.  These funds are very liquid, and can be traded easily on the NYSE.  GLD is one of the largest ETF's in the world, with a market cap of over $68 billion.  Rest assured, this ETF backs up their fund with physical Gold (as you can see on the right), so this option is the equivalent of buying Gold and having someone else hold it for you.  With Gold hovering around $1650/ounce, this is the perfect way to invest in fractional ounces of Gold.


2. Buying Gold Coins
The US American Eagle Gold Coin
Buying Gold coins is a fun way to own Gold. The United States American Eagle is one of the most popular Gold coins, but multiple countries around the world produce them.  The downside to buying coins is that you have to pay a premium for them.  Generally for a 1 ounce Gold coin, you will have to pay $100 over the current spot price for Gold.  Another downside is security, as storing Gold coins in your home can be dangerous if the wrong people become aware of it.  The advantage to Gold coins is that they are legal tender in the country that issued them.  For example, the US Gold Coin has a face value of $50, so if Gold were to go to $0 (not going to happen), this coin would still be worth $50.  Since you're going to be paying out $1700+ for one of these coins, the $50 face value does not seem like much of a consolation after all.

3. Investing in Gold Mining Stocks
This is perhaps the most intriguing way to own Gold right now.  Current industry experts all agree that Gold Mining stocks are vastly undervalued, so if you are a value investor who is still wary about Gold, this is the way to go.  Over the last year, the Miners have underperformed GLD by 20% and over the last 5 years they have underperformed over 100%.  Gold Mining companies own the land where they mine the Gold, so when the price of Gold goes up, the value of their natural resources goes up as well.  Accounting policy follows conservatism, meaning that these companies are valued with a Gold price of much less than $1600 in mind.  If Gold doesn't see a major correction, expect Gold Mining Stocks to soar.  2 ways to invest in the miners could be through the ETF GDX or the mutual fund Tocqueville Gold.

As of late, Gold has become a safe haven when there is fear in the market.  With the U.S. debt ceiling issue and the European debt crisis, fear is here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future.  Gold is also a great inflation hedge, as the price is based on the U.S. dollar if you buy in the United States.  If Ben Bernanke decides to start QE3, you can expect to see Gold rise by around 20%, as it did during QE2.

I see Gold as a long term investment the can have volatile swings in the short run.  Because of this, I have a long target price of $3,000 by 2015 for Gold.

Disclosure: I am long IAU and Tocqueville Gold 

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Steve Jobs: Innovator and Leader

Today is a tragic day.  Apple, Inc announced that their co-founder, Steve Jobs, has passed away.  I would be hard pressed to find a person in America who hasn't used a product created by Mr. Jobs.  From the iMac to the iPod to the iPad, Steve Jobs has touched all of our lives, and he will never be forgotten. 

Will Apple be the same without Steve Jobs?  We can take a look at the history of AAPL by looking here.  AAPL has been one of the most successful stocks out there in the last 10 years, but can it continue?

People may be worried that the stock price will be down big tomorrow because of this announcement, but I do not think so.  I believe that this news is already baked into the price.  AAPL is trading at a forward looking P/E of 11.62.  This is a ridiculously low P/E for a growth company like AAPL.  Generally, the higher the growth, the higher the P/E multiple.  Amazon, Inc. trades at a 66.11 P/E, and Amazon grows at a slower rate than AAPL.  Intuitively, this makes no sense, and I would expect AAPL's P/E to rise in the near future.

I have a price target of $500 for AAPL by December of 2012, and given the current price of the stock, I would be surprised if that isn't attained.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL.  I have no position in AMZN

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Welcome to Investments and Daily Life

This all-in-one blog is set up to help you, the investor, accumulate wealth while discussing important topics in today's society.  Investing can be daunting at first, and even the very best in the industry are only correct 55% of the time.  By flipping a coin, you can be correct 50% of the time, so why pay someone to make investments for you when you can do it yourself?

While I am not going to give any stock recommendations today, I will go over some of my favorite websites to use when considering stocks.

1. Google Finance
http://www.google.com/finance
This will give you a snapshot of how the United States market is performing as well as international markets.  You can add stocks to you watch list so you can easily see how your stocks are doing on any given day.

2. Finviz
finviz.com
This website will give you anything you want to know about a certain stock.  It will display technical trends as well as tons of financial data and indicators on a given stock.  We will go over some of the most useful indicators later, but this is a good starting point for financial data.

3. Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool
seekingalpha.com
fool.com
These are two of the most helpful websites to help you keep up on what is happening in the investment world.  Use them to get information on sectors as well as investment ideas.

This is all I've got for now.  Stay tuned for more updates.