The market has seemed bulletproof in the last 4 months, rising over 30%. I believe the time to get out is now. It is best to take the large stock gains now then risk losing them in the immediate future. While the market has gone straight up, there are a multitude of problems that could give the market a heavy dose of reality.
1. The European Debt Crisis
Contrary to what has been said on the news, the problem has not been resolved. While the Greek "haircut" is a temporary solution, other Europe heavyweights such as Italy and Ireland pose much bigger problems. There will be no easy solution to this problem. It may take the market down in 5 weeks or it may take the market down in 5 years, all we know is that there is no way out of the inevitable collapse of the EuroZone.
2. Israel vs Iran
There is no easy way around this as well. Iran is close to gaining the capability to create a nuclear warhead. Once this capability is reached, Israel will take it out, escalating a massive conflict in the middle east. While the United States is reluctant to get into any war, the threat of a presidential election in November will be enough to cause the US to enter the war if Israel attacks Iran. This will not be good for oil prices or the stock market
3. Earnings Season is Upon Us
Most corporations will be reporting earnings in the next few weeks, and the early sentiment is that it will not meet expectations. The S&P hovering above 1400 has created lofty expectations for corporations, and it remains to be seen if they can meet them.
Stay tuned, early this year I predicted a late March, early April stock market collapse. We will see if that prediction comes to fruition in the next 4 weeks.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Thursday, January 26, 2012
The Importance of Early Retirement Savings
Saving for retirement is like eating spinach. Everyone knows they should be eating it but people do not like to do it. Here I will talk about the benefits of saving for retirement, especially at a young age.
First take a look at this graphic (the amount that would be saved by age 60):
This table has a lot of important information.
First, regardless of the yearly return, the earlier a person starts to save for retirement the more money they end up with. There is nothing like the power of compounding interest.
Second, the difference between saving $1,000 and $5,000 a year is huge. It is inexcusable to save less than $2,000 a year because there is a retirement savings credit for that amount if a person has a low income.
Third, the difference between a 5% and 10% annual return is staggering. For a person saving $5,000 a year from the age of 25, a 5% return would yield $451,602 by the age of 60 while a 10% return would yield $1,355,122 by age 60. That is almost a $900,000 difference.
It is not unreasonable to assume a 10% return. Over the last 100 years, small caps have averaged around 15% a year while the stock market as a whole has held around 10% a year. Even a somewhat conservative allocation including bonds could still yield 10% over the long run. For people under 25, the difference between 0 and 1.4 million for retirement is as little as $5,000 a year.
There are 3 main ways to save for retirement, each with its own advantages.
1. The ROTH IRA
It is universally accepted that this is the better of the two types of IRA. The basis of the Roth is that income will be taxed when it is entered into the account but not when it is withdrawn. This means that the 1.4 million dollars as discussed above would be tax-free. This type of account is best served for people who save their favorites food for last. It makes sense to eat your carrots first because you know you've got some delicious chocolate chip cookies waiting for you. The Roth IRA is the delicious chocolate chip cookie.
2. The Traditional IRA
The benefits of the traditional IRA is the tax benefits immediately. People below certain AGI limits can deduct up to $5,000 on their tax return. On the downside, this money then has to be taxed when it is withdrawn.
3. The 401(k)
ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS put money into the 401(k) first up to the amount the employer matches. If your employer matches half of the first $3,000 put into the account, you have earned a free $1,500. There are no sure things in investing except for the employer 401(k) match. Take advantage of it if you can!
I hope this helps with the retirement dilemma.
Remember, $5,000 a year, retire without fear
First take a look at this graphic (the amount that would be saved by age 60):
First, regardless of the yearly return, the earlier a person starts to save for retirement the more money they end up with. There is nothing like the power of compounding interest.
Second, the difference between saving $1,000 and $5,000 a year is huge. It is inexcusable to save less than $2,000 a year because there is a retirement savings credit for that amount if a person has a low income.
Third, the difference between a 5% and 10% annual return is staggering. For a person saving $5,000 a year from the age of 25, a 5% return would yield $451,602 by the age of 60 while a 10% return would yield $1,355,122 by age 60. That is almost a $900,000 difference.
It is not unreasonable to assume a 10% return. Over the last 100 years, small caps have averaged around 15% a year while the stock market as a whole has held around 10% a year. Even a somewhat conservative allocation including bonds could still yield 10% over the long run. For people under 25, the difference between 0 and 1.4 million for retirement is as little as $5,000 a year.
There are 3 main ways to save for retirement, each with its own advantages.
1. The ROTH IRA
It is universally accepted that this is the better of the two types of IRA. The basis of the Roth is that income will be taxed when it is entered into the account but not when it is withdrawn. This means that the 1.4 million dollars as discussed above would be tax-free. This type of account is best served for people who save their favorites food for last. It makes sense to eat your carrots first because you know you've got some delicious chocolate chip cookies waiting for you. The Roth IRA is the delicious chocolate chip cookie.
2. The Traditional IRA
3. The 401(k)
ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS put money into the 401(k) first up to the amount the employer matches. If your employer matches half of the first $3,000 put into the account, you have earned a free $1,500. There are no sure things in investing except for the employer 401(k) match. Take advantage of it if you can!
I hope this helps with the retirement dilemma.
Remember, $5,000 a year, retire without fear
Thursday, January 19, 2012
What is Going On?
The stock market has been up in 12 of the last 14 days with no real good news to justify the move. The S&P is above 1300 for the first time since July and the market appears overbought to me.
We have a crisis in Europe brewing that will start to unravel in the next couple months.
As much as I would like to start selling stocks now, I have a strong inclination to wait a couple more weeks. With the S&P running into little technical resistance, it is unclear how high the market will go before Europe takes it down again.
I am willing to take my chances for a couple more weeks.
I am predicting the stock market will crash in late March or early April as investors come to grips with reality once Europe's first quarter GDP numbers are released. I think the S&P will start a drop that will bottom between 1050 and 1100.
The only thing that can prevent this from happening is Barack Obama and Ben Bernanke. With this being an election year, the White House will be on a short lease with any market dips. I think QE3 will take effect at the first sign of trouble.
This puts everyone in a terrible quandary. This should be a perfect time to sell and buy later at a more opportune time. However, with the threat of QE3 lingering over us, it is possible the market could go continue its unsustainable trend and approach 1500 in the coming months.
A speculative play would be to buy gold now when it is still reasonably priced because gold will go up if QE3 is announced and implemented.
Time will tell if Europe will blow up and Bernanke will implement QE3, but now is the time to be overly cautious as we enter into this critical juncture.
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