The Market's Last Stand

The market has seemed bulletproof in the last 4 months, rising over 30%.  I believe the time to get out is now.  It is best to take the large stock gains now then risk losing them in the immediate future.  While the market has gone straight up, there are a multitude of problems that could give the market a heavy dose of reality.

1. The European Debt Crisis
Contrary to what has been said on the news, the problem has not been resolved.  While the Greek "haircut" is a temporary solution, other Europe heavyweights such as Italy and Ireland pose much bigger problems.  There will be no easy solution to this problem.  It may take the market down in 5 weeks or it may take the market down in 5 years, all we know is that there is no way out of the inevitable collapse of the EuroZone.

2. Israel vs Iran
There is no easy way around this as well.  Iran is close to gaining the capability to create a nuclear warhead.  Once this capability is reached, Israel will take it out, escalating a massive conflict in the middle east.  While the United States is reluctant to get into any war, the threat of a presidential election in November will be enough to cause the US to enter the war if Israel attacks Iran.  This will not be good for oil prices or the stock market

3.  Earnings Season is Upon Us
Most corporations will be reporting earnings in the next few weeks, and the early sentiment is that it will not meet expectations.  The S&P hovering above 1400 has created lofty expectations for corporations, and it remains to be seen if they can meet them.

Stay tuned, early this year I predicted a late March, early April stock market collapse.  We will see if that prediction comes to fruition in the next 4 weeks.